May 23, 2020

DONALD'S ELECTION WAS ENTIRELY A FUNCTION OF HILLARY:

What's driving Biden's strength with seniors (Alexi McCammond, Margaret Talev, 5/23/20, Axios)

The seeds were planted years ago. Biden has led Trump with seniors in theoretical matchups dating back to 2015. Trump's prospects with seniors have depended to a large degree on the alternative.

The 65+ vote helped put Trump over the top in 2016. Those voters made up more than a fourth of the electorate and went for Trump over Hillary Clinton, 53% to 44%, the Pew Research Center found.

Biden has a +12-point favorability standing among seniors; at the same point in the cycle four years ago, Clinton's favorability with seniors was running a deficit of -13, per Quinnipiac.

A Monmouth University poll out last week shows another strength Biden has over Clinton: He's winning voters who don't like either of the major party nominees by more than 40 percentage points. In 2016, Clinton lost them to Trump by 17 percentage points.

Republicans have won seniors by 5-12 percentage points since the 2000 election, but Trump's margin of victory with them in '16 was roughly half of what Romney earned the cycle before -- and the lowest for any GOP nominee in nearly two decades.

But the coronavirus does look to be hurting Trump with seniors. A recent Morning Consult poll showed Trump dropped 20 percentage points in a month in how seniors view his handling of the crisis.

Obviously a bigger deal than only getting 3% of the black vote.
Posted by at May 23, 2020 8:15 AM

  

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