DONALD WHO?:

Even the Trump administration seems to grudgingly have concluded that breaching the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) was a mistake. More than two years after the U.S. exit, the deal still stands while the Trump administration is running out of options to force a re-negotiation. It is now so desperate it is seeking to convince the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) that it never quit the deal in the first place. The lesson to the U.S. is clear: Diplomatic vandalism carries costs -- even for a superpower. The lesson to a prospective President Joe Biden is more specific: Rejoin the nuclear deal, don't try to renegotiate it.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo claims that UNSC Resolution 2231 defines the term "JCPOA participant" to be inclusive of the United States, and nothing the United States could do or has done can change this supposed legal fact.  According to Pompeo, even though the Trump administration repeatedly referred to its "withdrawal" from the JCPOA as a "cessation of its participation" in the agreement, UNSCR 2231 continues to define the United States as a "JCPOA participant" that can invoke the resolution's sanctions snapback mechanism. 

The snapback permits a "JCPOA participant" to provide notification to the Security Council of a case of significant non-performance by a party to the agreement, triggering the automatic re-institution of former Security Council sanctions resolutions targeting Iran. No Russian or Chinese veto can prevent the reimposition of the sanctions contained in those resolutions. Only a resolution agreed to within 30 days that would undo the snapback -- but the U.S. has the ability to veto such a resolution.

This is why the Obama administration cherished the snapback -- if Iran were to renege on its nuclear commitments, the reimposition of sanctions would be swift and automatic. 

But this leverage was lost when Trump abandoned the deal in 2018 (the Presidential memoranda announcing the decision was even titled "Ceasing U.S. Participation in the JCPOA"). A senior Iranian diplomat told us at the time that Tehran was shocked that Trump would forgo this advantage. 

Now Trump is begging for a do-over.

Tweet   @brothersjudd