April 18, 2020
RATES ARE USORIOUS:
There's No Such Thing As 'Easy Credit.' There's Only Abundant Production (John Tamny, April 15, 2020, Real Clear Markets)
As we all know from the most basic of basic economics, artificially low prices made artificial by government command invariably lead to scarcity. Reducing what's absurd to the absurd, Los Angeles Mayor Garcetti could surely decree Ferraris cheap in Los Angeles, Mayor de Blasio could decree apartment rents cheap in New York, but it's not as though the markets would comply. Assuming the declaration of artificially cheap Ferraris and Manhattan apartments, the lightning quick result would be scarcity of both. That the previous sentence is a statement of the obvious brings new meaning to obvious.To which some will say central banks just "print money," and they can make the money "easy" by doing so. Yes they can, but the same economic truths apply. Once again no one borrows money; rather they borrow what money can be exchanged for. Implicit in Rivelle's thesis is that market actors aren't just stupid, but they're monumentally so.Indeed, Rivelle's analysis presumes that those who produce and own real resources (think again computer printers, office buildings, etc.) are just rushing to exchange those resources for paper easily produced by central banks, and loaned out for next to nothing. No. Not very likely.Looking at the above in reverse, do those who borrow "money" do so blind to what it can be exchanged for? As in do they aggressively borrow dollars, thus setting themselves up for principal and interest (however low) payments, even though they know the money isn't exchangeable for the real goods, services and labor that are the only reason to borrow?Back to reality, all money flows are a signal that goods, services and labor are being exchanged. Meaning money is never cheap. No doubt money is periodically devalued by monetary authorities, the U.S. Treasury the miscreant stateside, but this just means the devalued medium is used less to faciliate exchange, or it's used in exchange for exceedingly fewer goods and services. Markets always speak, and they always reject attempts at "easy" anything.Rivelle notes that interest rates have been low. Yes, so true. But not because of the Fed. The central bank is a follower.Interest rates for some businesses also haven't been low for decades because the sky is blue, or because financiers have been feeling generous; rather they've been low because production has been abundant.
Consider all of the unsold products that are gathering dust right now, from clothes to cars. Not only will reopening businesses need to clear out half their Winter inventory, but all of their Spring and much of their Summer just to make room for Fall lines. Automakers will have to dump an entire year's models to get ready for next. All at a time when much of the population has been on reduced or no wages. What are prices going to do in, at least the short term, future? Now factor in: the efficiencies businesses are realizing by getting along with fewer employees; the oil glut; etc. Realistically, rates ought to be well below zero at this point.
Posted by Orrin Judd at April 18, 2020 8:59 AM
