April 20, 2020


Democrats' momentum puts Senate majority in play (James Arkin, 4/20/20, Politico)

Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority, and Democrats would need to net three seats to win control of the chamber if they also win the White House -- or four seats if Donald Trump wins reelection. The Senate map this year features far more Republican seats, but the vast majority are in states Trump won easily in 2016. Democrats are only targeting two states he lost four years ago, the same number of Trump-state Democratic incumbents up this year.

The most important states remain Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina and Maine, four races where Democratic challengers outraised incumbent GOP senators in the first quarter of this year. These contests underscore just how costly the battle for the Senate will be: Super PACs in both parties have already reserved nearly $130 million for TV ads in these states, plus an emerging battleground in Iowa, to lay the foundation for the fall campaign.

Republicans have offensive targets in Alabama and Michigan, two seats that could help them preserve their control of the chamber even if they lose seats elsewhere. But Democrats have also recruited strong challengers in a string of red states that could come into play, including Montana, Kansas and a special election in Georgia, helping them potentially expand their path back to the majority.

The GOP downticket candidates ran well ahead of Donald in '16, carrying him over the line.  But they've chosen to identify the party with him even as he's declined.  Add in that the Democrats won't have the most unpopular nominee ever at the top of their ticket and you've got a recipe for Republican disaster.  One we've earned.

Posted by at April 20, 2020 12:00 AM