March 10, 2020


10% of Trump 2016 voters might not vote for him in 2020 (Laurel Bliss and Brian Schaffner,  Mar 10, 2020, Vox)

The dataset we used, a large academic election survey that YouGov has conducted online every year since 2006, allows us to better understand the share of 2016 Trump voters who are up for grabs. In November 2019, the survey interviewed 18,000 American adults who had been interviewed in 2016 about their vote, asking them how they planned to vote in 2020.

They found that most of Trump's voters plan to stick with him: Ninety percent of those who voted for Trump in 2016 say they plan to vote for him again. But 10 percent seem to be up for grabs. Four percent are already planning to vote for the Democratic candidate, and another 6 percent say that they are still undecided. By contrast, 94 percent of Clinton voters are already committed to the Democrats: just 2 percent of Clinton's 2016 voters are planning to vote for Trump in 2020, with another 4 percent undecided.

The largest share of Trump's support in 2016 came from baby boomers, and only 7 percent of them are considering abandoning him in 2020. Trump's older supporters are quite loyal to him. Where Trump is losing the most support is among Americans younger than 40 who voted for him in 2016.

He's really bumping up against that 42%.

Posted by at March 10, 2020 12:36 PM


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