March 17, 2020

THAT'S SUBOPTIMAL:

A new study pins down the source of the 'rapid spread' of the coronavirus in China -- people with little or no symptoms (Diane Peters, 3/17/20, Business Insider)

In China, an estimated 86% of COVID-19 infections went undiagnosed before the country's travel ban was enacted on January 23, according to a new study published in Science on Monday. 

Because there were so many undocumented cases of infection in China at that time, it was these people with undiagnosed COVID-19 coronavirus who spread it the most, leading to the "rapid spread of the virus throughout Chinam," the researchers report. 

Using mathematical models to simulate the spread of the virus, the researchers calculated the contagiousness of people who were reported to have the COVID-19 virus and the estimated number of undocumented cases.

The researchers found that undocumented cases transmitted the new coronavirus about half as often as documented cases. But there were a lot more of undocumented cases. As a result, people who had not been diagnosed were the source of about eight out of every 10 infected cases in China prior to January 23. 

Posted by at March 17, 2020 6:03 PM

  

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