March 30, 2020

ALL THE BATTLEGROUNDS ARE RED:

New Polls And New Candidates Are Giving Democrats Some Hope Of Flipping The Senate (Nathaniel Rakich, 3/30/20, 538)

Republicans started the cycle with the advantage, but Democrats have had reason for optimism of late. New polls have shown Democratic challengers ahead of GOP incumbents, the party is recruiting strong candidates, and, perhaps most importantly given the tight correlation between presidential and Senate voting, former Vice President Joe Biden, the Democrat who has polled the best against President Trump, has become the party's likely presidential nominee.

The most likely outcome is still that Republicans maintain control of the Senate, though perhaps with a reduced majority: The status quo favors them, and most of the states where the Senate will be decided lean red. (As a refresher, Republicans currently have 53 Senate seats to Democrats' 47,1 meaning Democrats need to flip four seats, on net, to take control -- or three if they also win the vice presidency.) But Democrats have expanded the map to the point where they have a lot more pick-up opportunities than Republicans do, so they have a lot of upside.

Posted by at March 30, 2020 12:00 AM

  

« THIS IS YOUR BRAIN ON NEGATIVE PARTISANSHIP: | Main | THE CHINESE CURE? OR THE WUHAN RECOVERY?: »