WHY BOLTON LEFT:

[B]reaking the current impasse is contingent upon some kind of an interim gesture by the US, with 'back channel' assistance, that provides Iran with the incentive it needs to come to the negotiating table - especially given that the contours of a potentially acceptable arrangement that covers issues such as the sunset clause in the existing JCPOA agreement, continued monitoring of Iranian nuclear facilities as well as some kind of a comprehensive agreement covering Iran's missile program are within grasp.

On matters pertaining to the region, once again recent developments suggest that hitherto hostile and uncompromising stances between Iran, the UAE and Saudi Arabia may have finally reached a turning point, in view of the realisation by the likes of the UAE that finding ways of de-escalating tensions through dialogue and diplomacy is by far the preferred option for ending tensions and violence in places like Yemen and Syria.

For the longer term, it is also worth noting that within Iran, all decisions aimed at reaching any kind of a ground breaking compromise, not just with the US but even key regional states such as Saudi Arabia, is considered in the backdrop of fierce feuding waged by various competing factions jockeying for the promotion or protection of their interests in the all important battle for succession in the post-Khamenei era. Ironically, US 'maximum pressure' has actually made an impact on this all important debate, in that it has worked to discredit forces of moderation - such as the current incumbent government, which wanted JCPOA to serve as a stepping stone for reducing Iran's forced economic reliance on China in exchange for much closer economic ties with the US (and its EU partners), especially in key areas having to do with the petroleum industry and aviation.

Tweet   @brothersjudd