BROWN IS THE NEXT RED:

Hurd, who is not foreswearing public life, insists, "I'm just getting started." Might he come back to electoral politics? "For sure." His "passion" is "the nexus between technology and national security." He is, however, saying goodbye to the rigors of the "DC to DQ" tours that have regularly taken him to the far reaches of his district. For you effete coastal residents who are unfamiliar with the delights of flyover country, DQ means Dairy Queen. Hurd meets gatherings of constituents at DQs because "every town has one and everyone knows where they are."

In 2018, he was one of just three Republicans to win a district carried by Hillary Clinton. (She won his by three points.) His House race was the nation's fourth-most competitive: He won by 926 votes. But, then, his largest victory, in 2016, was by just 3,051 votes. His district, which includes 23 percent of Texas' land and extends from San Antonio's fringe to New Mexico's border, is the state's largest, encompassing all or parts of 29 counties and 820 miles of the U.S.-Mexico border. It is 58,000 square miles -- almost as big as Georgia and larger than Illinois and 25 other states. It is 69 percent Hispanic, and just 4 percent African American.

Hurd, an articulate, assertive 6'4″ former CIA operative, and the only African-American Republican in the House, thinks voting trends "are moving so fast" that 2020 "has nothing to do with 2016." Just as "U.S. economic and military dominance are no longer guaranteed," neither is Republican dominance in Texas, a state that is hardly immune to national trends.

In the 2016 U.S House of Representatives elections, no Republican incumbent from Texas lost and only one was elected with less than 55 percent. In 2018, two lost and ten received less than 55 percent. In 2016, four incumbent Republicans in Texas' House were defeated and only four won with majorities under 55 percent. In 2018, there were eight losers and 16 won with less than 55 percent. John Cornyn, who recently stepped down as the second-highest Republican leader (majority whip) in the U.S. Senate, has won three terms with majorities of 55.3 percent, 54.8 percent, and 61.6 percent but seems headed for a more competitive race next year. No wonder Representative Cheri Bustos of Illinois, chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, says Texas is "ground zero" for Democratic attempts to strengthen their hold on the House.

Tweet   @brothersjudd