September 1, 2019

THE DEFLATIONARY EPOCH:

The US Recovery Turns Ten (JEFFREY FRANKEL, 7/14/19, Project Syndicate)

Assuming the current US expansion continues in July, it will break the record of ten years set in 1991-2001. But if the dates of American business cycles were determined by the rule that most other countries apply, the US recession of March to November 2001 would be erased. (It did not include two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, but rather two negative quarters separated by a positive one.) Under that interpretation, the US record, it seems, would instead be the 17-year expansion from the first quarter of 1991 to the fourth quarter of 2007. And the current recovery would still have a long way to go to top that.

The credit crunch was essentially the only interruption in US economic growth since the early 80s recession.

Posted by at September 1, 2019 9:50 AM

  

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