September 8, 2019

ALL THE BATTLEGROUNDS ARE RED:

The Republicans Are Dropping Like Flies: What do retiring members of Congress know that President Trump doesn't? (Frank Bruni, Sept. 7, 2019, NY Times)

To recap: Before the 2018 midterms, 46 Republicans but only 20 Democrats decided not to seek re-election to their offices in Congress, and among those, 32 Republicans and 11 Democrats weren't doing that in order to run for some higher, different post. They were just bolting. The discrepancy between the Republican and Democratic numbers amounted to a weather forecast -- and an accurate one at that. Although Democrats didn't improve their standing in the Senate, they picked up a whopping 40 seats in the House.

Heading into the 2020 election, 19 Republicans in Congress have already announced that they won't seek another term in their current office, a number higher than at the same point two years ago. Of the 19, 17 aren't retiring from Congress to pursue some kind of political promotion. Meanwhile, only four Democrats in all are retiring from Congress. To analyze these numbers in the context of what happened in the midterms is to conclude that Republicans are limping toward a disastrous Election Day.

Maybe Trump's fortunes are untethered from his party's. Maybe, as has happened so often over the course of his charmed life, he will soar while all around him plummet, and they instead of he will suffer for his sins. His campaign associates go to jail; he goes to the Group of 7. The most principled Republicans are driven from the fold; he reigns without principle over a party that has largely bent to his wishes rather than stand up for what it purported to believe.

"Most often I'm asked why so many Republicans aren't running for re-election," Dave Wasserman, who analyzes House races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told me. "But I ask why so many are. This isn't the cruise they signed up for." He noted that up until a few months before Trump effectively secured the Republican nomination in 2016, not a single Republican in Congress had endorsed him. The first two House members who took that icy plunge -- Chris Collins of New York and Duncan Hunter of California -- are now under criminal indictment (though not for anything having to do with Trump).

Except, of course, that Republicans down-ticket outpolled Donald in 2016 by enough to drag him over the finish line.  Their recognition that the weight is too heavy to bear removes his only support. It's a virtuous cycle.

Posted by at September 8, 2019 7:30 AM

  

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