August 25, 2019

TRUPONOMICS:

This Is How Trump Will Tank the Economy and His Presidency (Josh Barro, 8/25/19, New York)

The Fed chairman's remarks at the Jackson Hole Federal Reserve conference on Friday were in line with his comments after July's Fed meeting, and with the minutes from that meeting. There are increasingly worrying signs in the global economy, he said. Global trade tensions are one factor worsening the outlook. And the Fed stands ready to pursue appropriate policy adjustments to support the economy as needed.

The financial markets took Powell's statement as mildly dovish. Bond yields fell a little, stocks rose a little, the dollar fell a little -- all signs the speech gave market participants a little more confidence the Fed would pursue at least a couple more interest rate cuts. But mostly, the speech seemed to contain what people expected it to contain.

In response, the president attacked Powell on Twitter, asking who's the bigger enemy: him, or Chinese president Xi Jinping. [...]

[A]s the economy shows signs of weakening (in part for reasons unrelated to the president's actions) he seems panicked. He wants the Fed to clean up his mess but -- despite public perception -- his public jawboning of the Fed appears to be having little effect on monetary policy. The main way the president has been affecting monetary policy has been by taking concrete policy actions that hurt the economic outlook, which changes the parameters the Fed considers as it decides how to set interest rates. The bigger a mess Trump makes, the more rate cuts he can get, but not enough rate cuts to actually offset the mess. And this is making him angry.

Posted by at August 25, 2019 7:10 AM

  

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