NOTHING LEFT BUT THE TEA PARTY:

[F]or years Hurd has been considered a politician with a near-limitless future, the kind of politician Republicans have long sought: a Republican from a 71 percent Hispanic district on the southern border with a preternatural ability to connect with constituents on both sides of our widening partisan divide. A less capable Republican would almost certainly have been swept out of Texas's 23 district in 2016--the district went for Hillary Clinton by four points--or if not then, than in the blue wave election of 2018. Rumors have swirled for years that when John Cornyn, the senior senator from Texas and one of the most powerful Republicans in the Senate, finally retires, Hurd would be a likely candidate for his preferred successor.

But in another sense, Hurd's decision not to seek reelection is entirely predictable: It's what all the other Trump-skeptical Republicans are doing. Hurd is no dyed-in-the-wool Never-Trumper: He's already pledged to vote for the president if he's the Republican nominee in 2020. But the Texas lawmaker has opposed some of Trump's signature policies, most notably the coast-to-coast wall on the Southern border that was one of the president's signature issues during the 2016 campaign. But as Trump has made clear time and again, he considers loyalty to himself and his agenda to be an all-or-nothing prospect. There's no room for the Will Hurds of the world in today's GOP.

The impact this shift is having on the Republican party isn't just ideological. It's generational. The Obama years weren't great for conservatives, but they did launch the careers of a whole swath of young GOP leaders: lawmakers like Paul Ryan, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and Hurd. Trump has diminished or destroyed them all, trading away decades worth of the party's future prospects to go on a mammoth bender today.

This is the primary strategic problem with the take-what-you-can-get-from-Trump most Republicans have taken. The GOP has reasoned that if it can just weather the Trump storm, bank a bunch of judges, roll back regulations, and grow the economy, then things can more or less return to normal in 2024. The problem is that these gains come at a price. And the cost isn't just the spiritual drag of having to pretend that they don't mind "send her back" and "very fine people" and the love affairs with Putin and Kim Jong-un. There is actual, ongoing damage being done to the future of the party that's happening below the surface, at the electoral and leadership levels. And every day the rot grows worse. Trump will leave eventually and maybe the SCOTUS majority stays in place and maybe it doesn't. But what will the GOP have left to build on?

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