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The GOP has invested so heavily in white-male identity politics that the policies that have become its Trump-era signatures--family separation, draconian abortion bans--are widely unpopular with the American public and profoundly alienating to many of the white independent and moderate women who have historically voted Republican. Recent data from the Voter Study Group revealed that one in five Republicans has "economically left" policy preferences, with particular concern for Social Security and Medicare. Two-thirds of these voters are women.

The Republicans' white woman problem is also cultural, rooted in male tribalism. Much of the Republican primary electorate that remains is so pro-Trump that they don't trust women candidates to be sufficiently aligned with the president. In the North Carolina race, Murphy attacked Perry, who ran as a pro-life Christian, for her initial reluctance to support Trump's declaration of a national emergency at the southern border. Many North Carolina primary voters questioned whether Perry was sufficiently hard-core. A new poll by Supermajority/Perry Undem found that only 23 percent of voters who oppose abortion in most or all instances--the core Republican base--believe that the lack of women in political office affects women's equality.

The Republican base that has coalesced around Trump has been increasingly characterized by "hostile sexism"--antagonistic attitudes toward women that stem from a belief that women want to control men. Hostility toward women was a major factor predicting support for Trump in 2016--the first year it played a large and significant role in a presidential election--among Republican men and women alike. "I vote for brains, not boobs," Amy Kremer, the co-founder of Women for Trump said in discussing her endorsement of Murphy over Perry. Hostile sexism is not limited to Republicans. But its prominence within the Trump-aligned GOP base suggests that Republican women candidates will have a heavy lift for the foreseeable future.

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