August 27, 2019

AND THAT WHILE HE'S RIDING THE OBAMACONOMY:

Trump Has a Vicious New Primary Challenger--and Drooping GOP Support (Michael Tomasky,  08.27.19, Daily Beast)

[L]et's say 28 percent of registered voters are Republican. Twenty-eight percent of 175 million is basically 50 million. Okay, now let's say by election time, Trump is at 80 percent among Republicans. Well, 20 percent of 50 million is 10 million. That means that 10 million Republicans can maybe be persuaded to vote against the man. Or to withhold their support from him and stay home.

Given how close the vote totals were in 2016 in a number of states, these 10 million could make an enormous difference. Florida, 110,000 out of 9 million cast; Pennsylvania, 44,000 out of nearly 6 million; Wisconsin, 22,000 out of 2.8 million; Michigan, 11,000 out of 4.5 million. If there are 10 million anti-Trump Republicans in November 2020, isn't there a decent chance that 11,000 of them live in Michigan?

Out of curiosity I went back and looked at the exit polls over the last 20-plus years' worth of elections. Trump got 88 percent of Republicans in 2016. Mitt Romney got 93 percent in 2012. John McCain got 90 percent in 2008. George W. Bush got 93 percent in 2004 and 91 percent in 2000.

Then we go back to 1996, when Bob Dole ran against Bill Clinton. Dole got...80 percent of Republicans. Yes, party loyalties were less metastasized then, but whatever the explanation, the fact is the fact. Dole won just 80 percent of Republicans, and he lost--by 8.5 percent, 8 million popular votes, and a whopping 220 Electoral College votes.

So 80-percent support in a president's own political party may sound high at first glance, but it's not. It's shaky territory. 

We're really just measuring the size of the blowout at this point.

Posted by at August 27, 2019 12:16 PM

  

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