July 21, 2019

YOU TAKE THE GROWING STATES; WE'LL TAKE THE DYING ONES:

How Trump's 2020 reelection strategy could work -- but probably won't (Harry Enten, 7/20/19, CNN)

[T]rump's really trying to thread the needle here. A lot of things can go wrong.

His net approval rating remains negative (currently -9 points), as it has throughout a presidency in which he has focused on hardline immigration policies and racial resentment.

Further, Trump's Republican Party lost the 2018 midterm elections, which were held under similar conditions as today. Trump's net approval rating was -9 points in the 2018 exit poll. The result was that Trump's Republican Party lost 40 House seats and the House popular vote by 9 points.

In the final weeks of that cycle, Republicans were not helped by Trump continuously pointing out in the final weeks of that campaign that migrants were coming up through Central America. Voters who decided in the final month of the 2018 campaign were as likely to vote Democratic as those who decided before then.

It remains unclear if Trump can compensate his unpopularity by demonizing the Democratic nominee this time around.

And remember, Trump also risks raising turnout among nonwhite voters. That's not a big deal in a state like Wisconsin, which is very white. It could, however, take Sunbelt states moving to the left, like Arizona and Texas, and put them into play for the Democrats.

If either Arizona or Texas go blue, it opens up a lot of electoral college paths for the eventual Democratic nominee.

Even in '16, he managed to lose to the least popular nominee ever, other than himself, Trump and Clinton Finish With Historically Poor Images (LYDIA SAAD, 11/08/16, Gallup)

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton head into the final hours of the 2016 presidential campaign with the worst election-eve images of any major-party presidential candidates Gallup has measured back to 1956. Majorities of Americans now view each of them unfavorably on a 10-point favorability scale, a first for any presidential standard-bearer on this long-term Gallup trend. Trump's image is worse than Clinton's, however, with 61% viewing him negatively on the 10-point scale compared with 52% for her.

Once he does for GOP competitiveness in FL, AZ & TX what Pete Wilson did to CA maybe the GOP will come to its senses.

Posted by at July 21, 2019 6:55 AM

  

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