June 23, 2019

WE DESERVE DRUBBING:

GOP frets about Trump's poll numbers (REID WILSON, 06/19/19, The Hill)

"His numbers are problematic," said one top Republican pollster, who asked for anonymity to describe private survey data. "Folks are nervous, but no one is surprised." [...]

In the last month, several public polls have showed Trump trailing former Vice President Joe Biden and other Democratic contenders by double digits in Michigan, and by wide margins in North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

Three consecutive polls have showed Trump trailing Biden in deep-red Texas, though he led other Democratic rivals. And a survey from Quinnipiac University Poll of Florida voters released Tuesday showed Trump trailing six of his Democratic rivals.

A survey released Tuesdayby Firehouse Strategies, a Republican firm run by veterans of Sen. Marco Rubio's (R-Fla.) campaign team, and the data analytics firm Optimus found Trump trailing Biden in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, the lynchpins of his 2016 victory.

The common threads through all of those surveys, analysts said, are Trump's dismally low approval rating and the inelasticity in those numbers. Voters have formed hard opinions about Trump, whether favorably or unfavorably, and few seem willing or able to move off those feelings. [...]

Trump has become so inextricably linked with the Republican base that party strategists worry his low poll numbers could act as a drag on the rest of the ticket. Seven Republican senators are seeking reelection in states that are either swing states or where Trump has trailed in recent polls.

Those Republicans include the three most vulnerable seeking reelection this year, Sens. Martha McSally (Ariz.), Cory Gardner (Colo.) and Susan Collins (Maine). But Trump also appears vulnerable in states represented by Sens. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), David Perdue (R-Ga.), Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) and John Cornyn (R-Texas).

Texas has become a particular concern for Republicans worried about Trump's fortunes. For years, Texas Democrats have waited for a surge that would finally make a deep-red state competitive -- and they nearly scored that long-sought victory in 2018, when Sen. Ted Cruz (R) survived a spirited challenge from former Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D).

Posted by at June 23, 2019 5:57 PM

  

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