June 20, 2019

FLATLANDERS NEED NOT APPLY:

Three Democrats Have A Big Built-In Advantage in New Hampshire (Nathaniel Rakich, 6/20/19, 538)

The New Hampshire primary is one of the biggest prizes of the 2020 presidential campaign. Every candidate would like to win it, but four may have a built-in advantage: They already have a lot in common with Granite State voters because they're from just next door.

This year, four presidential candidates hail from a state that borders New Hampshire: Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren on the Democratic side and former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld on the Republican side. And candidates from right next door have historically overperformed in the New Hampshire primary compared with how they did nationally.

Going back to the start of the modern primary system in 1972, I identified nine "major"1 candidates who have run in the New Hampshire primary and who were from either New Hampshire or the neighboring states of Maine, Massachusetts or Vermont. (It turns out none of the candidates from New Hampshire met our "major" threshold, so we're talking exclusively about neighboring candidates from here on out.) Of the nine, six finished in first place, and three finished in second. In other words, when politicians from neighboring states contest the New Hampshire primary, they win it 67 percent of the time, and impressively, they have always finished in the top two.

Posted by at June 20, 2019 5:56 PM

  

« IF THE BRAND HAD VALUE DONALD WOULDN'T BE A SERIAL BANKRUPT: | Main | DUTY BOUND: »