June 21, 2019

EXCEPT THE JUDGE WAS A MAN OF HONOR:

Trump's National Security Council Is Replicating Reagan's Chaos (JOHN GANS, JUNE 21, 2019, Foreign Policy)

The Time magazine cover said it all. Above a somber portrait of U.S. President Ronald Reagan's national security advisor, William "The Judge" Clark, a bold-faced headline proclaimed: "The Big Stick Approach." The message was clear: The White House was taking charge of a more forceful foreign policy. Yet just two months later, in October 1983, that cover boy was out of the job, a casualty of a breakdown on the National Security Council over the United States' role in the Middle East.

This mostly forgotten history should serve as a warning to President Donald Trump's National Security Advisor John Bolton--whose push to use the big stick effectively against Iran, North Korea, and other countries has led to speculation over his job security.

Unlike Clark, a longtime Reagan loyalist who admitted his own lack of expertise on foreign policy, Bolton has been a decades-long fixture in the right-wing national security establishment. But the two national security advisors have something fundamental in common: They both found themselves pushing so hard for hawkish policies that they turned off their colleagues and their presidents.

On Thursday night, Trump pulled back from a retaliatory strike against Iran--urged, reportedly, by Bolton--for shooting down a U.S. drone. Planes and ships were moving into position by the time Trump changed course. Friday morning, Trump explained the whiplash on Twitter, saying the strikes would have been disproportionate.

Such an about-face--a president not feeling confident enough in his own call and having to change it--is the result of Bolton's muddled decision-making processes, with senior advisors pulling one way and the president another, and none of the options solid enough for the commander in chief's comfort. For the national security advisor, the question is whether he can find a way to wield a big stick effectively without getting whacked himself. The question for the rest of us is whether we should be worried more about how the Trump administration makes policies than about the decisions themselves.

To his credit, Bolton did not take this humiliation lying down; he leaked it to humiliate Donald too as fast as he could. 

Posted by at June 21, 2019 7:20 PM

  

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