May 30, 2019

PITY THE POOR MALTHUSIANS:

The earth has its problems, but a lack of resources is not one of them (Marian L. Tupy, 5/30/19, @humanprogress)

The price elasticity of population (PEP) allows us to measure sensitivity of resource availability to population growth. Between 1980 and 2018, world's population increased by 71.2 percent. The time price of commodities fell by 72.3 percent. As such, the time price of commodities declined by 1.016 percent for every 1 percent increase in the world's population. Put differently, over the last 38 years, every additional human being born on our planet appears to have made resources proportionately more plentiful for the rest of us.

The Simon Abundance Framework uses the PEP values to distinguish between different degrees of resource abundance, from decreasing abundance at one end of the spectrum to superabundance at the other end. Considering that time price of commodities decreased at a faster proportional rate (-72.3 percent) than population increased (71.2 percent), we conclude that humanity is experiencing superabundance.

Finally, The Simon Abundance Index ® 2019 uses the time price of commodities and change in global population to estimate overall resource abundance. The Index represents the ratio of the change in population over the change in the time price, times 100. It has a base year of 1980 and a base value of 100. In 2018, the Index reached a level of 618.98. That is to say that the Earth was 518.98 percent more abundant in 2018 than it was in 1980 (see Figure 3). The compounded growth rate of abundance came to 3.44 percent per annum, which means that the affordability of our basket of commodities doubled every 20.49 years.



Posted by at May 30, 2019 12:00 AM

  

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