CROOK OR BY HOOK:

In a new examination of voter preference changes between 2016 and 2019, the Voter Study Group found a marked difference in the opinions of a much-discussed group in the electorate: voters who voted for Barack Obama in 2012 and then Trump in 2016. Unsurprisingly, this group largely had a positive opinion of Trump in 2016 -- 85 percent of these voters approved of him, the survey found.

But these opinions have significantly shifted. In 2019, only 66 percent of these voters still approved of Trump -- a 19-point drop.

"Even small movement among these voters -- who represented 9 percent of voters in 2016 -- may prove significant heading into the 2020 presidential election," wrote Robert Griffin of the Voter Study Group. "Obama-Trump voters are also disproportionately white, non-college educated and, as a result, are likely to be well distributed geographically for the purpose of electoral impact." [...]

State-by-state polling also supports this inference. Morning Consult presents data on Trump's approval across the country and over time. In the key states where Trump won in 2016 -- Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania -- the president started out in early 2017 with a net positive approval rating:

PA: +10

WI: +6

MI: +7

But by April 2019,  he was significantly underwater in each of these states:

PA: -7

WI: -13

MI: -10

There are other states where he's also looking weak. In Ohio, he's at -4; Arizona, -7; Florida, -2; North Carolina, -2; Iowa, -8. Meanwhile, there are no states that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 in which Trump now has a positive approval rating.

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