SO MUCH WINNING!:

[T]he highest cost to Putin came in bargaining power rather than in cash. Immediately after Crimea, geopolitical bargains were still possible for Putin. In a recent interview, former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili recounted how in 2014, Petro Poroshenko, then not yet president of Ukraine, told him Crimea could be traded for Ukraine's eventual membership in NATO and the European Union (something Poroshenko himself will never confirm). Whatever the truth of that, Putin could have wrangled a post-Crimea bargain with reluctant Western leaders, especially European ones; after the eastern Ukraine adventure, and especially after the downing of Flight MH17 and all the laughable Russian denials that followed, his credibility was shot. Nobody knew if he would keep his end of any bargain. 

That doesn't just include Western leaders. Putin's lack of credibility is an important reason he can't build any alliances at all, even with China and other major emerging economies. Even if Russia, as a rather large and relatively open economy, has proved difficult to isolate, Putin's isolation is evident in Russia's shrinking share of global arms sales, his inability to broker a political solution in Syria, his failure to persuade Belarussian dictator Alexander Lukashenko to move toward a closer union, the near-lack of Chinese direct investment in Russia. Literally all deals are elusive.

At the same time, Russians' post-Crimea enthusiasm is gone, eroded by six years of falling incomes. Now, Putin's financial costs are coming, too: Increased social and infrastructure spending are necessary to keep his support from sliding further, and, judging by the lack of reaction in the polls to Putin's recent promises, as well as pronounced apathy during recent elections, Russians don't trust him, either.

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