March 1, 2019


Is Elizabeth Warren's Campaign Already Over? (MICHAEL GRAHAM  MARCH 1, 2019, tHE bULWARK)

"Sometimes she can come off as a little shrill. I think she's trying to appeal to a broader base than maybe she actually has," Roger Lessard, chairman of the Hillsborough County, NH Democratic Party, told US News and World Report.

"I don't know a single person who has her at the top of their list," a New Hampshire Democratic Party insider tells me. "It's not that people don't agree with her policies. She just doesn't get people that fired up here."

This early in the 2020 cycle, New Hampshire Democrats are reluctant to either publicly sign on with a candidates or publicly criticize them.  But even in this cautious political environment, the silence around Liz Warren is deafening.

And given that New Hampshire is her electoral backyard, it's potentially deadly.

Speaking of deadly . . .

There hasn't been a public poll of New Hampshire Democrats with Warren in the lead since May. In fact, Warren consistently finishes in fourth place--or worse--trailing candidates like Kamala Harris and potential candidates like Beto O'Rourke.

But that's just the beginning of Warren's bad news.

Last May, Liz Warren had 26 percent support among New Hampshire Democrats and was leading the field. That summer, New York magazine featured her on the cover with the headline "Front Runner?"  But by August, she was down to 17 percent.  Last week, both Emerson University and the University of New Hampshire polls had her at a mere 7 percent.

When UNH asked an open-ended version of the "who do you support today" question (no names listed for the respondent to choose from), Warren got just 2 percent support, fewer mentions than Amy "The Comb Master" Klobuchar.

All right in Warren's back yard.

No, New Hampshire isn't the whole ballgame--but for Warren, it's close.  It's hard to see her campaign surviving a fourth place, or even third-place, finish in a state where, as key Democratic consultant Jim Demers notes, national coverage of Warren is on the local news.

Posted by at March 1, 2019 6:09 PM