February 17, 2019
OBL WEPT:
Sunni Jihad Is Going Local (HASSAN HASSAN, 2/17/19, THE ATLANTIC)
For decades, Sunni jihadism has been characterized by transnational terrorism, suicide bombing, and excommunication. These three pillars not only attracted the ire of American and European governments, but turned off many of the jihadists' target constituents, namely Sunnis living in the Muslim world. Yet there are signs that Sunni extremists are changing their ways, drifting away from the global agenda that reached its apotheosis in al-Qaeda's attack on the World Trade Center, and toward a hyperlocal one.The transformation is happening in various countries, including Afghanistan, Yemen, and Mali. Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaeda's offshoot in Syria, provides an illustrative example of how the jihadist threat is changing across the region.In 2016, Jabhat al-Nusra put together a lengthy training manual for its new recruits. In the roughly 200-page book, obtained by me, the group argues the merits of country-focused jihad over global jihad. It advises followers that al-Qaeda's stated strategy of going after the "far enemy" was not set in stone, and that, in the current moment, a focus on anything other than the local fight would be an "unacceptable distraction."Throughout the Syrian War, the group has put that theoretical injunction into practice. Its leader, Abu Mohammad al-Julani, even pledged in an interview with Al Jazeera in May 2015 that Syria would not be used as a launchpad for jihadists to attack the West, based on orders from al-Qaeda's central leadership. The group established a political office and reached out to countries including Turkey to sell itself as a reliable partner, one that poses no threat to anyone outside Syria.Simultaneously, the group has moved away from the other two pillars of suicide bombing and excommunication, part of the grander effort not to alienate locals.
Ironically, the West owes an immense debt to ISIS, which defied al Qaeda by turning away from the Far War to the Near War and turning a global conflict, where we were vulnerable, into a set of civil wars, where they are.
Their vulnerability is best illustrated by the Afghan War and by the crushing of the caliphate, existential conflicts for their states in which we were nearly casualty free. The simple reality is that in any symmetrical warfare all their attempt to exercise political power does is make them easy for us to destroy at no risk to ourselves. Their assertion of sovereignty also brings them into direct conflict with the citizenry and leaders of the areas where they operate, giving the locals skin in the game, which they did not have when attacks were occurring exclusively against Far targets.
Posted by Orrin Judd at February 17, 2019 8:58 AM
