THANKS, DONALD!:

[S]hutdowns backfire for four reasons:

First, they never succeed at winning the demand in question. The 1995-1996 "Gingrich shutdown" was intended to force President Clinton to accept significant spending reforms. The 2013 "ObamaCare shutdown" was meant to pressure President Obama to repeal his signature law.

The early-2018 "Dreamer shutdown" saw Senate Democrats filibuster government funding legislation in hopes of forcing Republicans to re-open immigration policy. In all three cases, an intense public backlash weakened the aggressors' hands, until vulnerable members decided to stop committing political suicide. There is no reason to believe the latest shutdown will end differently.

Second, shutdowns alienate moderates and independents. While the party's base cheers their lawmakers' "fighting spirit," moderates and independents see a temper tantrum and a government held hostage. As national parks close, passports are delayed, and federal loans go unprocessed, the party shutting down the government alienates the swing voters who decide elections. Approximately two-thirds of independents oppose the new shutdown.

Third, failed shutdowns disillusion party activists. During the 2013 ObamaCare shutdown, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and other Republican lawmakers convinced many conservatives that they could force Democrats to repeal ObamaCare if only they show the requisite backbone. This was absurd. No level of congressional Republican unity could change the fact that Democrats controlled the Senate, and President Obama was never going to repeal his signature law--especially with the public firmly opposing the shutdown.

When the gambit inevitably failed, many conservative activists concluded that Republican lawmakers must have lacked the promised backbone. This sense of betrayal fed the chaotic 2014 Senate primaries that ended up costing the GOP several winnable Senate seats, and that feeling of betrayal continues to feed the Republican activist base's distrust of its congressional leaders. Over-promising and under-delivering is a recipe for political disaster.

Fourth, the backlash against shutdowns sabotages their initial policy goals. Back in 1995, the new Republican congressional majority enjoyed strong public support in its effort to rein in spending and balance the budget. Yet by foolishly overplaying their hand and shutting down the government for 26 days, Republicans fed the stereotype of heartless budget-cutters willing to burn Washington to the ground to get their way.

Gingrich became the least popular politician in America, while a previously vulnerable President Clinton coasted to re-election in his new role as the defender of key spending priorities and policy stability.

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