SIMPLE, DON'T TRUST HIM:

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has asserted, in both internal briefings and public interviews, that Trump's instructions are clear and the troops are coming out, while saying the administration's overall goals for the region have not changed. Meanwhile, national security adviser John Bolton, currently traveling in Israel and Turkey with a press pool in tow, has said any US withdrawal from Syria will be conditions-based, and won't occur until the so-called Islamic State in Syria (IS or ISIS) is fully defeated and unless Turkey guarantees protection for Syrian Kurdish fighters that Ankara considers terrorists. [...]

"My understanding is Bolton is maximally interpreting his brief -- and is attempting to present Trump with a false choice," Aaron Stein, a Turkey expert and director of the Middle East program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, told Al-Monitor today. "Leave and it's chaos vs. stay in a different way and things will be fine."

"I think Bolton will lose because, once again, his actions are at odds with the directives of his boss," Stein continued. "Trump wanted US forces out within 30 days, but has accepted the military's recommendation to leave over the next four months. This suggests US forces will be gone in 2019."

"The danger, I think, is that in the absence of a hard plan, you get competing fiefdoms," Stein added. "Bolton and [US Syria envoy Jim] Jeffrey are probably broadly aligned on the need to stage manage the exit, but Jeffrey would never have signaled to Ankara in the way Bolton did. I'm sure Jim is going to have an awful time in Ankara because of things someone else said."

Bolton's comments over the weekend on an entirely conditions-based withdrawal from Syria seem out of step with Trump's instructions, former State Department official Amanda Sloat said.

"I was surprised to see Bolton's comments in the press, which seemingly return to the old strategy -- defeat ISIS, counter Iran and diplomatically end the civil war," Sloat, now with the Brookings Institution, told Al-Monitor. "Trump's tweet this morning suggests he is doubling down on his desire to withdraw and doesn't want to look managed by his staff.

"These disjointed messages reflect the lack of a real policy process inside the government," Sloat continued. "Instead, we have decision-making by presidential tweet or pronouncement followed by advisers scrambling to implement Trump's guidance in a more rational way. If nothing else, it makes it hard for local actors to trust what Trump's envoys are telling them when they know it could be undermined by the president."

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