January 26, 2019
DO KIM AND ASSAD AT THE SAME TIME:
The U.S. Failed in Venezuela Last Time. It's a Different World Now (Marc Champion , Ilya Arkhipov , David Tweed , and Firat Kozok, January 25, 2019, Bloomberg)
When the U.S. rushed to endorse a military coup against Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez in 2002, it ended up with egg on its face. The self-styled leader of a "Bolivarian" revolution was back in office within three days -- and more anti-American than ever.The decision by Washington to recognize opposition leader Juan Guaido as the nation's legitimate president could see a repeat, if Chavez-heir Nicolas Maduro should cling onto power. But it takes place in a very different geopolitical climate, one where failure risks global repercussions.Venezuela's economy is in a tailspin, prompting millions to flee to neighboring states that have backed the U.S. in refusing to recognize Maduro's 2018 re-election, widely seen as fraudulent. The coup against Chavez was condemned by many Latin American governments as anti-democratic. Now it's the military that's keeping an authoritarian Maduro in power, in the face of much stronger domestic and regional opposition.Yet the current stand-off is also freighted with great-power rivalry -- between China, Russia and the U.S. -- that barely existed in Venezuela 16 years ago. That's providing Maduro with a reservoir of international support in standing up to Washington that Chavez didn't enjoy.
Even if it weren't worth restoring a more moderate government simply to comport with our ideals, it would be worth toppling such regimes simply because it would serve as an object lesson to Putin, the PRC, etc. We know how their History Ends, but we're happy to speed it up.
Posted by Orrin Judd at January 26, 2019 8:38 AM