December 9, 2018

VULNERABLE? HE WON'T BE ON THE TICKET:

What 2018 Tells Us About 2020 (Charles E. Cook, Jr., December 7, 2018, Cook Political Report)

Keeping in mind that Trump received just 46 percent of the popular vote in 2016 and how little he has attempted to expand his base beyond that point, a president of 20 months who has yet to see a Gallup weekly job-approval rating above 45 percent--which also happens to be his approval rating in the networks' exit poll, with 54 percent disapproving--is very, very vulnerable.

Consistently, Gallup polling has shown a ratio of at least 1.4 voters strongly disapproving his performance for each one who strongly approves, and in the exit poll, 46 percent strongly disapproved while just 31 percent strongly approved. These are very troubling signs. Two years ago, Trump beat Hillary Clinton by 4 points among independents while Republican House candidates topped their Democratic rivals by 6 points among independents. In this year's midterms, the 30 percent of the electorate that described themselves as independents voted for Democrats by a 12-point margin, 54 to 42 percent,

Maybe Trump can squeeze out another Electoral College majority while losing the national popular vote, but the popular-vote advantage of 9.4 million that Democrats had in House races this year dwarfs the 2.9-million edge that Clinton had in 2016. Democrats may find a way to blow this upcoming election, but it would take considerable effort to do so.

He's 72. His immigration and trade restrictions are making the strongest economic recovery in US history shaky and it was the only thing propping his approval ratings around 40%. He faces indictment, personally and/or as the Trump Organization. He faces impeachment. His next two years will be even more frustrating than the past two and he already hates the job. Like Truman and LBJ he could either lose NH or come so close to doing so that even he could read the writing on the wall.

Posted by at December 9, 2018 9:26 AM

  

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