How Russian provocation backfired in the Caribbean (STEPHEN BRYEN, DECEMBER 16, 2018, Asia Times)

Of course, Ukraine is a weak adversary as far as the Russians are concerned, and the Russians have renewed pressure on Ukraine's current leadership, not only by restricting access to the Sea of Azov (which was relaxed days after the Kerch Strait incident), but also according to the Ukrainians, by Russia massing tanks and soldiers close to Ukraine's eastern border.  Whether this is just more of the same - an intimidation exercise - or a prelude to an actual military invasion of Ukraine is far from clear.

There were, of course, other consequences from the Kerch confrontation, including additional sanctions from the West and US President Donald Trump's decision to cancel an important face to face meeting with Putin at the G-20 summit.  Of course, the meeting cancellation put off negotiations on important matters, especially the fate of the Intermediate Nuclear Forces agreement (INF agreement) which Trump has declared he will cancel because of Russian violations.  The Russians have been trying to head off Trump's decision and have offered negotiations, but Russia once again shot itself in the foot by their poor behavior at Kerch.

But if that wasn't enough, the Russians went even further when they sent Backfire bombers to Venezuela after the G-20 summit. [...]

The fact that Russia carried out a military drill that was of no military purpose and then had to turn tail and go home, suggests the Russians got hard warnings from the Trump administration, discernible from the tone of the rhetoric especially from Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and so they pulled back.

Perhaps in the back-channel communication the US administration reminded the Russians of the Cuban missile crisis in 1962.

Putin may want to rethink the games he is playing. The Backfires certainly backfired.