China's biggest handicap is its public inability to admit that it has done anything wrong, when on issues like intellectual property it obviously has. This not only makes other countries and businesspeople cross, it leaves the Chinese mystified with what the famous British philosopher Monty Python might call the bleedin' obvious.

For instance, Chinese officials seem perplexed: Why haven't American companies rushed to defend the multilateral trading system against Trump's rampages? The answer is fairly simple: Western CEOs are privately fed up with the way China treats them -- the artificial barriers, the ownership restrictions, the intellectual property theft and the repeated delays in opening up markets. Anything Trump can do to prize open China is welcome -- as long as he does not go too far.

However, there are two promising signs that China is becoming more skillful. First, China's rhetorical defense is increasingly anchored in the multilateral system. Even a year ago, China seemed bent on replacing the "Western" Bretton Woods institutions set up at the end of World War II with regional bodies of its own creation. But at this month's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, Xi specifically called for countries to uphold a rules-based order led by the World Trade Organization. And in recent weeks he has condemned the law of the jungle and beggar-thy-neighbor policies -- and warned about globalization being at a crossroads.

Second, China increasingly stresses that opening up its economy is in its own interest. Earlier this month Xi promised to import $30 trillion worth of goods. And China has promised to push ahead much more quickly with opening up industries, including financial services.

Of course, China has muttered about opening up before and done very little, but there is a difference now. China's economy is in transition. The next phase of its growth, officials say, will come from services and personal consumption. It would much rather suck in foreign capital than add yet more debt and government stimulus. And talking about the benefits of opening up China gives Xi more room to retreat gracefully. Domestically, he can portray "concessions" to Trump as long-promised reforms that will make China stronger (which is probably true anyway).

There is a useful prompt for this -- with another historical echo. Dec. 18 is the 40th anniversary of the third plenary session of the 11th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, which was the moment in 1978 Deng Xiaoping started opening up China's economy. Xi is likely to unveil a series of commemorative reforms; foreign banks that have been waiting to take bigger stakes in their Chinese joint ventures may well find the approval process is speeded up. 

So China is inching in the right direction. Its task is made harder by Trump's enormous unpredictability. His tweets do not just move markets, but also the heart rates of Chinese civil servants who have to interpret his intentions to President Xi.

In Beijing, debate rages about what the U.S. president actually wants.

One school of thought is that the self-styled artist of the deal will settle for any agreement where he can proclaim victory. Some Chinese see the renegotiation of Nafta as an example of that: Trump made a lot of noise, but not much changed. They hope that Trump can be assuaged by personal flattery -- not least from his very good friend, Xi Jinping -- and that he can be persuaded to sign a deal quickly.