November 11, 2018

HATE IS A TOUGH SELL IN AMERICA:

Why Trump Should Be Worried About 2020 (Josh Kraushaar,  Nov. 11, 2018, National Journal)

What should worry Trump is the GOP's glaring slippage in the suburbs, where brand-name Republicans were unable to sustain the unstable coalition of white-collar professionals and populist-minded Trump fans that propelled so many down-ballot Republicans to victory in 2016. In Wisconsin, Walker lost serious ground in the deeply conservative suburban stronghold in Waukesha County. Pragmatic Rep. Martha McSally of Arizona, who evolved into a Trump ally running for the Senate, is lagging behind Trump's performance in vote-rich Maricopa County (Phoenix). Her inability to hit Trump's vote share in the state--despite her pandering to his supporters--shows how hard it will be for Republicans to play both sides of the intraparty divide.

Even in races where Republicans won--holding off Beto O'Rourke in the Texas Senate race and defeating Stacey Abrams in the Georgia governor's race--there were ominous trend lines for the GOP. Abrams, despite running a progressive campaign in a red state, notably improved on Hillary Clinton's performance in the suburban Atlanta counties that were once solidly Republican. Democratic dominance in the Texas population centers brought O'Rourke within 2 points of Sen. Ted Cruz, and flipped House seats around Houston and Dallas. If the Trump campaign has to invest valuable money in Texas and Georgia in 2020, that bodes poorly for his reelection chances (even if he holds onto both states). The shifts in these states are a lot more about Trump than about the celebrity Democratic candidates.

Importantly, there is no one the Democrats can nominate in 2020 who is as unpopular as Donald and Hillary, who he ran three million votes behind.
Posted by at November 11, 2018 8:53 AM

  

« THE WISDOM OF THE OWNERSHIP SOCIETY: | Main | AT LEAST THEY LEARNED THE LESSON OF GORE V. BUSH: »