October 18, 2018

TOOTHLESS DRAGON:

Why China Inc is still stuck in 2015: No industrializing nation has ever avoided a financial comeuppance. Neither will China (WILLIAM PESEK OCTOBER 17, 2018, Asia Times)

Despite those Herculean efforts, Shanghai shares are now below 2015 levels. The ongoing $3 trillion rout has the Shanghai Composite Index at the lowest since November 2014. Why? The same concerns about growth and dodgy corporate governance.

Donald Trump's trade war surely isn't helping. But if Xi's government had worked harder to modernize corporate practices, recalibrate growth engines away from exports and get the government's hand out of the economy, US President Trump's tariffs wouldn't be an existential threat.

Beijing, in other words, made the Japan-like mistake of treating the symptoms of its problems, not the underlying causes. Xi is erring anew as Beijing ramps up stimulus efforts that will only exacerbate dueling bubbles in credit, debt and property.

His team also is cutting taxes as data on exports, fixed-income investment and purchasing managers' orders turn ugly. So, sure, China might make this year's 6.5% growth target, but at what cost in the long run?

The yuan's drop by that same amount - 6.4% - this year is another metric worth considering. It sheds light on why Xi's team is desperately working to keep capital in China.



Posted by at October 18, 2018 3:58 AM

  

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