CAN'T ESCAPE THE TAINT:

In the past several weeks, House Republicans--either via the National Republican Congressional Committee, which serves as their official campaign arm, or the Congressional Leadership Fund, a big-dollar super PAC aligned closely with Paul Ryan--have nixed plans to spend big in defense of at least four incumbents in races that had been widely considered competitive: Reps. Mike Coffman in Colorado's 6th Congressional District, Mike Bishop in Michigan's 8th, Keith Rothfus in Pennsylvania's new 17th, and Kevin Yoder in Kansas' 3rd.

While a party could conceivably pull funding if they think they have a race wrapped up, it's clear that's not what's happening in these districts, all of which have been trending in the direction of Democrats recently. "That's Washington, D.C.," Coffman's campaign manager told the Associated Press after the CLF canceled a seven-figure ad buy in his boss's district. "One day you're up. The next day you're down." Each decision suggests that, at best, the GOP believes its money is better spent elsewhere or, at worst, that these congressmen are already as good as gone. Even the former would be a stunning admission given that the nonpartisan handicappers at the Cook Political Report currently rate all four races as competitive, with Bishop and Yoder in a toss-up column that includes 20 of their fellow Republican colleagues and another seven open GOP seats.

Republican Congressman Kevin Yoder won't attend President Donald Trump's campaign stop in Topeka this weekend, he said Wednesday, citing a scheduling conflict in Johnson County.

Five weeks out, several personally popular Republicans who appeared to be defying the "blue wave" in Clinton-won districts are beginning to see their leads erode. GOP Reps. Carlos Curbelo (FL-26), John Katko (NY-24) and Brian Fitzpatrick (PA-01) led most surveys over the summer but are now prime targets as their well-funded Democratic challengers become better-known and the Kavanaugh debate further polarizes voters into red and blue corners. [...]

 

After today's ratings changes, there are 15 GOP-held seats in Lean or Likely Democratic (including seven incumbents) and Democrats would only need to win 11 of the 31 races in the Toss Up column to flip the majority.

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