YOU MEAN HATING MEXICANS ISN'T A DURABLE ORGANIZING PRINCIPLE?:

However, the future demography of Texas itself is the (to borrow a recent phrase) lodestar of the race. In a race between a Latino freshman Senator and Congressman that culturally appropriated a Latino sobriquet, Texas' population shifts are on clear display. Latino voters have increased their share of the Texas electorate and now make up over 39 percent of the population, up from 36.7 percent in 2010.

In the latest Quinnipiac poll Cruz carries a nine point lead, but is lagging behind Governor Greg Abbott's 19 point advantage. In the same poll, Cruz cinched white voters by a 66-32 margin but splits Latinos, with Cruz trailing O'Rourke 54-45 among them.

The race exemplifies two different strands of Texas' future. One is that Latino voters in the state, predominantly of Mexican heritage, are now the swing population in the state's elections. Abbott is leading Latino prospective voters, and is headed toward a landslide. This should give the Texas GOP hope that focused messaging and reinforcing shared family and economic values mean a fair fight for voters of all ethnic backgrounds.

The other is that outside forces really want Texas to stop being Texas. Cruz may have the ear of the political and economic establishment, but Beto has Washington! And Fairfax County! Cruz attempted to poke light at the situation with a clumsy joke about banning barbecue but it underlines the fact that a Beto victory would signify a substantial change to Texas -- and that you can't get the genie back in the bottle. And if the Democrats can strike so far into traditional GOP territory, what Republican-leaning states could be next?

From 2007 to 2016 almost 300,000 Californians moved to Texas. Count in the thousand per day more who move to Texas from New York, Illinois, and elsewhere. Full stop, Texas' demographics are changing. Major migration shows that middle class whites leaving other states for Texas retain their old voting patterns. Even if there is a roughly 50-50 Republican-Democrat split among these new residents, this still leaves both Texas more blue overall. Upper middle class, college educated whites are up for grabs, and Cruz's campaign must make them a top priority.

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