September 21, 2018

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Internal GOP Poll: Pelosi Beats Trump in a Head-to-Head Matchup (Bloomberg, September 21, 2018)

President Trump likes to mock Nancy Pelosi, but a private survey conducted for the Republican National Committee finds that she's actually more popular--and beats the president when the midterm election is framed as a contest between the two.

The internal poll, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies and obtained by Bloomberg Businessweek, asks registered voters who they support "when the November election is framed by Trump and Pelosi." Overall, respondents prefer Pelosi-aligned candidates over Trump-aligned candidates by 5 points, 50 percent to 45 percent. Among independents only, Pelosi still prevails by a 4-point margin. The poll was completed on Sept. 2.

Between health care, tax cuts, guns and Nancy, all the GOP attacks work in favor of the Democrats.
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Rust Belt States That Powered Trump Win Are Now Spurning Republicans (John McCormick, September 21, 2018, Bloomberg)

The situation confronting Republicans is typified in Wisconsin, where Trump beat Democrat Hillary Clinton by 22,748 votes, or 0.8 percentage points.

While times are generally good in the Badger State -- the unemployment rate in July was 2.9 percent, down from 3.5 percent in the month Trump took office, and below the national average -- Republican candidates are struggling.

Governor Scott Walker, once a rising Republican Party star, is fighting for his political life, according to a Marquette University Law School Poll released on Sept. 18. The survey showed Democrat Tony Evers with the support of 49 percent of likely voters, compared to 44 percent for Walker.

Also in Wisconsin, Senator Tammy Baldwin, a Democrat pummeled by millions of dollars in negative advertising from conservative groups, led her Republican challenger, state Senator Leah Vukmir, 53 percent to 42 percent.

Trump's job approval has fallen to 42 percent in the state, down from 45 percent in Marquette's August poll. Among independent voters, a pivotal group, 41 percent approve of his performance.

Many voters in Wisconsin, which the U.S. Chamber of Commerce says is among the states most vulnerable to a prolonged trade war, are also skeptical of Trump's tariffs on China and other nations. More than half -- 58 percent -- think free trade agreements have generally been a good thing for the U.S. economy, while 25 percent think they have been bad for the economy.



Posted by at September 21, 2018 4:17 AM

  

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