September 11, 2018

ALWAYS BET ON THE dEEP sTATE:

OZY'S EXCLUSIVE ELECTION MODEL: A DEMOCRATIC HOUSE TAKEOVER (Daniel Malloy, 9/11/19, ozy)

[W]e decided to team up with 0ptimus, a data and technology firm based in Washington. Founded in 2013, 0ptimus is a Republican firm -- they once worked on Marco Rubio's presidential campaign -- that aimed to develop an unbiased, nonpartisan prediction model so it could show its clients in the worlds of both politics and finance where the winds were blowing.

Our exclusive first forecast shows blue-friendly skies ahead. The Democrats are almost certain to take over the U.S. House this fall, but that doesn't mean they will have a huge margin to work with in 2019. And the gathering blue wave looks like it will produce a status quo Senate, with Republicans holding onto control by a slim margin.

We find Democrats with an 89.9 percent chance of taking control of the House for the first time since 2010, with the most likely number of Democratic seats at 227, compared with 208 for Republicans.

In the Senate, Republicans have an 82.1 percent chance of capturing at least 50 seats -- which is what they'll need to control the upper chamber, with Vice President Mike Pence acting as a tiebreaker -- and we project them to have 51 seats.


MORE:
"THE HOUSE IS ALREADY LOST": AS THE MIDTERMS APPROACH, G.O.P. INSIDERS PREPARE FOR AN ELECTORAL D-DAY (DAVID M. DRUCKER, SEPTEMBER 10, 2018, Vanity Fair)

"At this stage of the game, losing the House is the most likely proposition. It's just a matter of how bad it gets," said a disconsolate Republican strategist with clients on the ballot, describing the final, desperate scramble to rescue the G.O.P.'s 23-seat majority from an impeachment-happy opposition. In Washington, a familiar sort of fatalism has taken hold. Just weeks until early voting kicks off, a spate of fresh public-opinion polls show Democrats on the precipice of a resounding victory. Time is short; resources are dwindling, and the singular figure with the power to make or break the party--Donald Trump--seems pathologically incapable of standing down and letting a booming job market do the talking. "You have people imploring the president not to put them in a position that will harm them--and therefore harm him," a veteran G.O.P. operative said of Republican congressional leaders.

The pendulum of political power, which historically swings against the White House during the midterms, could be especially savage this year, given the sharp dissatisfaction with Trump in America's usually Republican-leaning suburbs. Washington's high-powered consulting class is betting on it. The lobby shops and advocacy organizations that play both sides and thrive on proximity to power are preparing for a changing of the gavel and moving to forge connections with Democratic committee chairmen in the House beginning in January of 2019, when the 116th Congress is seated. "Downtown, there is a sense that the House is already lost for Republicans," a G.O.P. lobbyist and former senior House aide told me. "There is a hiring spree for plugged-in House Democrats who want to lobby. So, downtown is already planning on the Democratic takeover; the bets are on how big the flip will be."

Posted by at September 11, 2018 7:52 AM

  

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