WELL, AT LEAST HE GOT THE BLUE WALL BUILT:

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, notably, has left off Democratic seats in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio when he listed off the most competitive races for this year's midterms. The Democrats' leading Senate super PAC, so confident of its prospects in the region, isn't reserving any time for Sens. Tammy Baldwin, Bob Casey, Debbie Stabenow, or Sherrod Brown.

Meanwhile, Ohio is becoming a major warning sign for the GOP's fortunes in the upcoming midterms--and beyond. The state backed Trump by a healthy 8-point margin in 2016, fueled by dramatic swings towards Republicans along the blue-collar eastern spine of the state. Trump's winning margin in bellwether Ohio was nearly identical to his winning margin in ruby-red Texas. Given the promising political trends from Trump's election, Republicans were hopeful that they could upset Brown and hold the governorship with an established figure like Attorney General Mike DeWine. Early polling showed the Senate race competitive and DeWine holding a healthy lead over the opposition.

But the political movement in Ohio is headed in the opposite direction, even with Trump's recent uptick in popularity. Trump's job approval in the state is at 43 percent with 54 percent disapproving, according to a new Quinnipiac survey. Nearly half of respondents to a Suffolk University poll of Ohio voters said their midterm vote would be a check on the president, compared to 28 percent saying their vote would be to support Trump's agenda. And Brown now holds a commanding double-digit lead over Rep. Jim Renacci in the latest public polls, with Democrat Richard Cordray inching ahead of DeWine.

Governor races in the other Trump states aren't looking much better. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker has watched his party lose numerous downballot elections on Trump turf and is openly concerned about the GOP's standing in the state, despite a lackluster Democratic field against him. Democrats will be aggressively contesting the open Michigan governor's seat, eager to litigate the record of a Trump-friendly attorney general (Bill Schuette) in a traditionally blue state. Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf is coasting to a second term, with The Cook Political Report changing its rating of the race to Likely Democratic. Cook has also shifted Iowa GOP Gov. Kim Reynolds's race against businessman Fred Hubbell for a full term from Likely Republican to Toss-Up.

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