June 12, 2018

THE ONLY GAME WORTH PLAYING IS REGIME CHANGE:

China's Long Game for the Singapore Summit: While Trump and Kim play checkers, Xi has the Go board out. (James Stavridis, June 8, 2018, Bloomberg)

China is playing a very long game indeed. While the Pentagon is excited about developing a new five-year plan, the Chinese are thinking about how the region comes out in 200 years. They have three crucial strategic objectives in the region, which they will continue to hammer home. 

First, they want undisputed control over the South China Sea, principally for the hydrocarbons. Second, they want to consolidate Chinese influence around its periphery, especially full incorporation of Taiwan (they hope without a fight, but if necessary, they will eventually take the island militarily). They will also seek a dominant partner in the Philippines and/or Vietnam. Third, they want a divided Korean Peninsula so they can maintain dominant influence in the north and check the U.S. influence in the south.

China will use the North Korea-U.S. summit to further these ambitions. For Beijing, the best outcome would be an agreed framework that puts off any actual relinquishment of North Korea's nuclear weapons into the distant future. This will ensure the long-term survival of the Kim regime and the continuation of a divided peninsula. 

It will also ensure the need for China to be back at the table (presumably with South Korea in four-party talks) as quickly as possible. The Chinese will also use their influence with North Korea to help Trump claim some kind of a victory, thus proving that all roads to Pyongyang lead through Beijing. President Xi Jinping has played his hand of cards well.



Posted by at June 12, 2018 4:10 AM

  

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