C'MON, VLAD NEEDS HIGHER PRICES:

What changed in that eight weeks? The outlook for the availability of Iranian oil. Trump's decision to pull out of the nuclear deal and re-impose sanctions will reduce the volume of crude available from the country by an unknown amount.

I have said from the outset that the amount of Iranian oil that will be forced off the market will be more than when sanctions were previously in force -- even without the EU bans on purchases that accompanied U.S. curbs last time around. Analysts are now starting to ratchet up their forecasts of the volume that could be lost.

The curbs will be more extensive than under President Obama -- targeting Iran's exports of condensates as well as crude oil -- and waivers will be harder to come by. Tanker owners and insurers may already be reacting to the imposition of sanctions, even before they come into effect.

It is the fear that the world is about to lose as much a million barrels a day of Iranian crude oil exports by the end of the year, and possibly another 500,000 barrels from Venezuela, that has really driven oil prices higher -- not OPEC.

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