March 13, 2018

AND HE STILL MANAGED TO TRAIL HILLARY BY THREE MILLION VOTES:

4.4 million 2012 Obama voters stayed home in 2016 -- more than a third of them black (Philip Bump March 12, Washington Post)

On Sunday, the New York Times published research from a group of political scientists and data analysts that breaks out how voters who supported President Barack Obama in 2012 behaved in 2016. Most of them, unsurprisingly, voted for Hillary Clinton. Nine percent voted for Trump. Seven percent didn't vote.

Those percentages aren't distributed evenly by race. According to the analysis, 12 percent of white voters who had backed Obama in 2012 voted for Trump four years later. Eleven percent of black Obama 2012 voters stayed home.
 
Those are small percentages of the total pool of voters, but it means that the Obama-to-Trump voter pool was overwhelmingly white -- and the Obama-to-nonvoting pool disproportionately black.

We see this effect in other ways, too. The U.S. Elections Project tracks Census Bureau data on turnout. In 2016, black turnout was down eight points from 2012, helping contribute to that lower percentage that black voters made up of the overall electorate.

Democrats almost have to nominate Michelle.




Posted by at March 13, 2018 6:47 AM

  

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