THE IRONY OF THE nATIVIST MOMENT...:

A study commission convened a couple of years ago noted in its final report that between 1960 and 1990, the state prospered from net in-migration as people "voted with their feet" to live in the Granite State. The average annual population increase was 16,744 people in those years, 78 percent of whom came from somewhere else, mainly Massachusetts. After that, in-migration slowed considerably and young people continued to leave, with alarming implications as the baby boom generation hit retirement age. "If this demographic trajectory proceeds unchecked," the report warned, "it will mean decades of constrained economic growth, significant shifts in the composition of the demand for public services and private sector goods and services, and a public sector facing fiscal challenges."

Interestingly, in-migration to New Hampshire rebounded sharply between July 2016 and July 2017, with 4,700 more people moving in than leaving. But it is considered unlikely to will rebound to 20th-century levels on its own.

Of course, attracting people, especially young people, to Vermont and New Hampshire will require more than simply better telling what the states have to offer (which is considerable in terms of jobs and quality of life). And it's important to remember that New England's cold climate will inevitably limit the appeal among people accustomed to milder weather. But Scott is on to something when he pinpoints lack of affordability as a barrier to attracting newcomers, repatriating former Vermonters and keeping young people at home.

Lack of affordable housing and a housing mix that does not match well with developing demographic trends is just one obstacle in both states. The vexing nature of the demographic problem is well illustrated by the education situation in Vermont, where the combination of declining student enrollment and rising costs has produced considerable pressure to consolidate services and cut costs. But little is more important to young families who are thinking of moving than the quality of the schools where they might be going. At the same time, education taxes have a real impact on affordability, so there is a needle to be threaded here to refill the state's classrooms.

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