Measures of economic, technological and military strength show that Western liberal democracies are prospering and growing--from a very high base. IISS's The Military Balance 2018 data shows that the US, other NATO members, Japan, South Korea and Australia made up over 60% of planned global defence expenditure in 2017, with Russia and China combined making up less than 14% (leaving aside whether real or PPP measures are most representative). Western countries continue to innovate and adapt at a tempo as fast as at any time in the last 150 years. If this is decline, I want more.

On the flip side, it's true that China's rapid development over recent decades has enabled the Chinese government to lift millions of its people out of poverty. Good. Growth has also allowed China to invest in a range of military systems that give it an ability to project power in its own territory, its neighbours' territories and into disputed areas between them--like the East China Sea and the South China Sea.

Along with this, China and Russia (and even more obviously Iran and North Korea) have more than their share of weaknesses and vulnerabilities that undermine their strengths.

You wouldn't know this by listening to commentators and former politicians, whose historical determinism seems more Marxist than Karl's own. They outline the inevitability of China's rise, along with the equally inevitable decline of the decadent, distracted West. 'Resistance is useless' seems to be the T-shirt they think we need. Luckily that's not true.

China now, as throughout its history, has multiple internal tensions and pressures. Like the Qin, Han or Manchu emperors of the past, Chinese leaders fear that internal tensions could lead to social and political unrest that will end their rule. They continue to feel insecure about their borders. An abbreviated list of some of the major pressures the Communist Party leadership confronts includes:

*Unrest driven by ethnic differences between Han Chinese populations and local populations like Uyghurs and Tibetans

*Corruption and fraud that takes people's savings and brings the party into disrepute

*Air, water and land pollution and contamination affecting human and environmental health

*Bad debts in a financial system distorted by government requirements to take on bad loans and prop up state-owned businesses

*Excess capacity in construction and manufacturing that creates the conditions for unrest as people lose jobs

*Growing social media connectivity that absorbs growing amounts of state resources and people to control and censor so that debates don't threaten Communist Party rule

*A rapidly ageing population that doesn't have the means to support itself in retirement owing to the lack of a social safety net

*The potential collapse of North Korea, whether through its own contradictions or miscalculated military action, causing millions of hungry, desperate North Koreans to move into China, combined with environmental damage from North Korean use of nuclear weapons.

Russia is even more troubled and a weaker state by most measures. Space prevents a longer list, so let's simply note the following: corruption; political repression; economic weakness; a declining, ageing population; chronic health problems including alcoholism and depression; and tensions with most of its neighbours--which include China, the Balkans, Central Asia and Western Europe.