THANKS, DONALD!:

Setting aside the fall of the caliphate, the counterterrorism picture looks positive from the perspective of U.S. homeland security. In 2017, nine people died on U.S. soil from jihadist terrorist attacks (a security guard killed in Denver, two Americans and six foreign tourists, killed during the car-ramming attack in New York City). That's nine too many but it should not obscure that the overall number is low. This low number probably stems from a mix of strong U.S. counterterrorism measures abroad, aggressive investigations and better defenses at home, and the overall weakness of jihadist networks in the United States.

Europe remains worse off than America, but here too the picture may be brightening. In 2015, jihadists killed 150 people in Europe and 135 died in 2016. As 2017 winds to a close, however, that figure fell to less than 60. Europe is even more threatened than America by returning foreign fighters and HVEs, but it too has improved counterterrorism practices, and the decline of the Islamic State, which had previously inspired over thousands of Europeans to travel and fight with the group since the Syrian civil war broke out in 2011, also bodes well for Europe in the long-term.

Al-Qaida too has taken hits. In particular, al-Qaida recently suffered a major loss when its Syrian affiliate, Hay'at Tahrir al Sham (HTS, or Organization for the Liberation of the Levant and formerly known as Jabhat al-Nusra), split from the al-Qaida core in an acrimonious divorce. As Syria remains the most important theater of jihad, the al-Qaida core's setback--and HTS' apparent determination to focus on the Syrian theater rather than the global targets that al-Qaida favors--hinders its ability to threaten the west and raises questions about its overall relevance under Ayman al-Zawahiri's leadership.

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