Given Israel's role in the region, its military power and its willingness to use it, it's critical for Putin to continue the current level of communication with Netanyahu to ensure Russia's own presence is immune from any Israeli assaults. But it's also clear Israel is determined to stop Iran's growing presence near Israel's borders. At the same time, Tehran is resolved to expand and solidify its presence. Moscow doesn't see that situation as its own fight and is working to dodge potential complications of ending up on either side.

Israel has been rather loyal to Russia's military presence -- and realizes its own gains from it -- and Iran has been crucial to Russia on the ground in Syria. But Russia's goals in Syria aren't ultimately about either Israel or Iran. Moscow is, however, wary of each party trying to work Russia's presence to the detriment of the other. For instance, Russian media outlets have recently raised questions about Iran's intentions when it changed the location of an Iran-to-Hezbollah arms transfer point from the border with Lebanon to central Syria, closer to Palmyra. As a result of that change, Israel will have to fly deep into Syrian territory to make its bombing raids on the transfer point and could at some point clash with Russian air forces or harm Russian advisers thought to be stationed at Palmyra.

Such moves are likely to happen more often and represent a long-term challenge to Moscow. Russia will need to sit down with Israel and seriously talk about whether Israel's interests can be squared with Russia's interests, and whether Moscow really has any leverage over Tehran, whether in Syria or beyond.