The confrontation between Qatar and its three immediate neighbors has hit a wall. Efforts by Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, ably supported by Secretary of Defense James Mattis and Senate Foreign Relations Chairman Bob Corker has partly offset the President's early ardent support of Saudi Arabia and its friends. The likelihood of President Trump overruling his Secretaries of Defense and State seems increasingly remote.

Absent a Washington surprise, the current measures against Qatar will not force Doha to cave. Closing air, sea and land access to Qatar caused only temporary pain. More than 90 percent of what Qatar imported from its neighbours were goods in transit from other suppliers. Qatar surprised observers -- and perhaps even its own people -- at the apparently seamless manner by which it found alternative routes and sources for everything it imports. It may cost more, but it works. Even if the crisis is soon resolved, most Qatari entities will prefer to make the new flows permanent rather than again become dependent on their neighbors. Similarly, Qatar's Central Bank found workarounds to counteract attempts by the UAE financial sector to disrupt Qatari riyal transactions. In short, all else remaining equal, Qatar should be able to sustain the new state of affairs indefinitely into the future.

What next? The signing of an agreement between Qatar and the United States to fight terrorism financing put that particular ball into the neighbours' court. Qatar can reasonably insist the others sign the same agreements with the United States. Saudi Arabia will find that an impossible condition, if past performance is any indication.