June 8, 2017
DONALD AND VLAD DON'T COMPREHEND AMERICA:
Crossing the Red Line: How Russian Interference in Western democracy is Backfiring (Ulrick Speck, 29 May 2017, ISN Blog)
Besides the Ukraine conflict, tensions between the West and Russia have also arisen because the latter began to interfere in the domestic political spheres of leading Western democracies. There are three major cases so far: in Germany, the Lisa case in Berlin in January 2016, a Russian disinformation campaign (and before that the hacking of computer systems of the German parliament, in 2015); in the US, the hacking and publishing of documents from the Democratic National Committee during the presidential campaign in July 2016; and in France, financial and other support for Marine Le Pen as well as hacking during the presidential campaign in May 2017.In Western capitals a consensus has emerged that the Kremlin is using 'active measures' in order to undermine politicians it considers hostile to Russian interests and backing those it considers sympathetic to the Kremlin. More generally, the aim seems to be to undermine the credibility of democratic institutions and to weaken the ability of Western democracies to cooperate by sowing distrust.
The Kremlin is using a number of instruments to achieve these goals, including: State-owned foreign media such as the TV-channel 'Russia Today' and its news agency Sputnik; cyberattacks with the subsequent publication of private e-mails and classified information; social media (trolls and Twitter bots); open support for parties and politicians; and NGOs such as the Dialogue of Civilizations Research Institute in Berlin.In many cases, especially as regards the cyber dimension of this type of political warfare, it is impossible to identify a 'smoking barrel' to prove beyond reasonable doubt that the Kremlin has been involved. This allows the Russians to continue denying any involvement in such activities.And yet there is an increasing awareness about these Russian tactics among experts, officials and the general public. A number of politicians and intelligence agencies have talked publicly about the rise in disinformation and influence operations, and many point their fingers at Russia.If the Kremlin's overall goal is to improve relations with the West, then such activities are counterproductive. Russian interference in the domestic politics, especially in elections, of major Western countries is leading to a further deterioration of the relationship. Those in the West who argue in favour of detente, of an easing of sanctions and a rapprochement with the Kremlin, find it much more difficult to defend this course of action because of the rising anger over Russian political warfare tactics.
The corruption has backed Donald so far into a corner that he can do nothing to help Vlad. Though, in fairness, Vlad did manage to avoid the worst possible outcome for him--Hillary would have been an active opponent, not just a nullity.
Posted by Orrin Judd at June 8, 2017 5:23 AM