ALWAYS BET ON THE dEEP sTATE:

Donald Trump's election was supposed to be a boon to Putin. Instead, things have been going quite poorly for him. Whatever goals the Russians had in meddling in the U.S. presidential election last year, be it to elect a president more favorable to lifting sanctions, punish Hillary Clinton, discredit Western democracies, or, as many analysts say, sow chaos in Washington and disrupt the international liberal order, Putin seems to be failing on most counts.

There is indeed chaos in Washington, though largely contained to the White House, and Trump has injected some uncertainty into longstanding relationships with allies. His refusal to affirm the mutual-defense commitment of the NATO treaty and his withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement are sowing divisions between America and Europe that could do long-term damage. The Trump administration seems uninterested in promoting democratic values abroad, and surely any time the U.S. retreats in its leadership role, it benefits other world powers such as Russia and China.

But earlier fears of a dramatic shift in U.S. foreign policy, driven by Trump's isolationist rhetoric and friendliness toward strongmen, are not panning out. Trump stacked his national security and foreign policy teams with establishment picks who have largely stuck to conventional Republican positions: punitive policies against Russia, Cuba, and Iran; cooperation with China on deterring North Korea; more troops in Afghanistan, and more bombs in Syria.

It seems Putin may have misjudged just how powerful our presidency is. Even more so, he seems to have severely misjudged the power of the American media, which is determined to overturn every rock with regards to the Russian hacking story. Back home, Putin is used to receiving far more favorable press--and when Russian media doesn't fall in line, he simply shuts them down or finds ways to change the subject.

But the subject stubbornly refuses to change in America, and is getting worse by the day. The domino effect since the Russian hacking revelations--starting with national security advisor Michael Flynn's firing, then Comey's, and now the appointment of special counsel Robert Mueller--have not only forced Republicans to double-down on their anti-Russia rhetoric, but have even forced the president to abandon any hopes for a Russian reset, for fear of corroborating the collusion narrative. As defiant as Trump can be, even he must realize that any overture toward Russia now will be viewed as suspect.

Putin's troubles are hardly limited to the U.S.

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