May 3, 2017

IN FAIRNESS, THE PRESS SHOULD BE TOO ASHAMED TO DISCUSS IT:

The Comey Letter Probably Cost Clinton The Election  (Nate Silver, May 3, 2017, 538)

The letter isn't the only reason that Clinton lost. It does not excuse every decision the Clinton campaign made. Other factors may have played a larger role in her defeat, and it's up to Democrats to examine those as they choose their strategy for 2018 and 2020.

But the effect of those factors -- say, Clinton's decision to give paid speeches to investment banks, or her messaging on pocket-book issues, or the role that her gender played in the campaign -- is hard to measure. The impact of Comey's letter is comparatively easy to quantify, by contrast. At a maximum, it might have shifted the race by 3 or 4 percentage points toward Donald Trump, swinging Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Florida to him, perhaps along with North Carolina and Arizona. At a minimum, its impact might have been only a percentage point or so. Still, because Clinton lost Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by less than 1 point, the letter was probably enough to change the outcome of the Electoral College.

And yet, from almost the moment that Trump won the White House, many mainstream journalists have been in denial about the impact of Comey's letter. The article that led The New York Times's website the morning after the election did not mention Comey or "FBI" even once -- a bizarre development considering the dramatic headlines that the Times had given to the letter while the campaign was underway. Books on the campaign have treated Comey's letter as an incidental factor, meanwhile. And even though Clinton herself has repeatedly brought up the letter -- including in comments she made at an event in New York on Tuesday -- many pundits have preferred to change the conversation when the letter comes up, waving it away instead of debating the merits of the case.

The motivation for this seems fairly clear: If Comey's letter altered the outcome of the election, the media may have some responsibility for the result.

Posted by at May 3, 2017 4:39 PM

  

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