THANKS, UR!:

Assad was not the only one to be surprised (or rather, not entirely surprised -- the US gave the Russians 90 minutes warning under an early-warning protocol established four years ago, and the Russian general staff apparently alerted the Syrians immediately). The Kremlin was shocked too. Russia's political elite had convinced itself that Trump's election would bring in a golden new era of non-intervention. 'An America that minds its own business is an America that suits us,' State Duma member Vyacheslav Nikonov told me after Trump's inauguration. Some Russian politicians fantasised that Trump and Putin would strike some kind of grand bargain that would leave Moscow a free hand in Ukraine and its near abroad in exchange for Putin's support in Syria and Iran.

But with Trump's bombing of a regime airbase this week, Syria suddenly went from being an asset to Russia to being a dangerous liability. Instead of being a diplomatic multipurpose tool, the fallout from Trump's Syria raid now threatens a series of Russian vital interests. First, America and Britain are talking about renewed and broader sanctions as punishment for Moscow's support for Assad -- just as the Kremlin was hoping to fracture Europe's unanimity on renewing its set of Crimea-related sanctions. Second, the raid signalled a breakdown in a new relationship with Trump on which Putin had -- and perhaps still has -- put high hopes.

And most devastatingly of all for Russia, the cruise missiles that streaked into the sky last week served as a kind of salute to a quiet palace coup inside the White House. The isolationist Steve Bannon -- an admirer of Putin's style of muscular conservatism and -follower of the Kremlin-favoured Eurasian philo-sopher Alexander Dugin -- was ousted from the National Security Council, while many of Trump's new intelligence chiefs and generals are notably hawkish on Russia. Even Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, who ran the Russia portfolio at the US oil giant Exxon before becoming its chief executive and has a close personal relationship with Putin's ally Igor Sechin, was vocal in his criticism of Moscow's support for Assad at the G7 meeting. In short, Trump's team has turned out to be anything but pro-Kremlin -- and with allegations of Russian electoral interference swirling, Russia has become politically toxic in Washington.

Putin doesn't really care about Assad; Russia has no vital interests there. The so-called 'Russian naval base' at Tartus is in reality a 300-yard-long strip of shallow quayside with a fuelling station and a garrison of 30. Rather, Syria is important to the Kremlin as a symbol, the place where Putin drew his own red line and where he finally stood up to the world.

Tweet   @brothersjudd