YOU CAN'T COUNT ON DONALD:

It's about the reliability of the US alliance. "It's not unprecedented for the leaders of the US and Australia to have a tough, difficult, robust conversation," says Sydney University's alliance historian, James Curran.

"But it is unprecedented for this sort of private conversation to be leaked." And it was a leak, according to Turnbull, that leaves him feeling "very disappointed".

Adding insult to injury, the leak was swiftly reinforced by a hostile statement from the US president, in the form of his tweet that he's still considering the "dumb deal" with Australia on refugees.

Says Professor Curran: "I'm not sure the Trump administration gives a crap about the Australian alliance."

And this is the nub of it. An alliance, regardless of the formalities, is a dead letter unless it is infused with political will. Can Australia trust its great and powerful friend?

Or, as James Curran puts it: "If you have this sort of tension this early in the life of the administration over relatively small beer, what will happen in the event of a major crisis?" [...]

How does today's ruction rank? The veteran Australian diplomat Dick Woolcott, who has witnessed the entire life of the 65-year-old alliance, says that this "is right at the top of the list" of difficulties.

Because, says Woolcott, it seems to be a symptom of a fundamental problem with the US under Trump: "I don't think he much cares about US allies."

The Mattis trip comes at a time of uncertainty over the US role in Asia under the new administration. On the campaign trail, Trump often criticized China, and shortly after the election, challenged a longstanding diplomatic protocol concerning the "one-China" policy by taking a phone call from Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, before taking office. Trump has also raised the possibility of making allies like Japan and South Korea pay more for having US troops stationed on their soil and has already pulled the US out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade agreement that was under negotiation between the US and 11 Pacific Rim countries, including Japan. 

The unpredictability surrounding the new US president's foreign policy has caused worries among many US allies in Asia and elsewhere.

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